BitPredict - Decentralized Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets

Overview

BitPredict is a Clarity smart contract enabling trustless BTC/USD price speculation markets on Stacks L2. The protocol combines Bitcoin settlement security with Layer 2 scalability, featuring automated market resolution and anti-manipulation mechanisms through Bitcoin-finalized blocks.

Key Features

• Bitcoin-Native Settlement: Direct price speculation anchored to BTC value
• Enterprise-Grade Throughput: Optimized for high-frequency trading via Stacks L2
• Dynamic Reward Engine: Automated profit distribution with protocol fee capture
• Oracle-Protected Markets: Price resolution through authorized oracle nodes
• Capital Efficiency: Pooled liquidity model with minimized slippage

Contract Architecture

Core Components

1. Market Structure

{
    opening-price: uint,      // Initial BTC price in satoshis
    closing-price: uint,      // Final resolved BTC price
    bull-commitment: uint,    // Total long positions (STX)
    bear-commitment: uint,    // Total short positions (STX)
    activation-block: uint,   // Market start height
    expiration-block: uint,   // Market end height
    resolution-status: bool   // Settlement status
}

2. Position Management

{
    direction: "bull"|"bear", // Market position direction
    amount: uint,             // STX committed
    claimed: bool             // Reward claim status
}

Core Functions

1. Market Creation (create-market)

• Purpose: Initialize new prediction market
• Parameters:
  • opening-price: Initial BTC/USD price (sats)
  • activation-block: Market start block
  • expiration-block: Market end block

clarinet console> (contract-call? .bitpredict create-market u65000 u15000 u18000)

2. Position Taking (take-position)

• Requirements:
  • Minimum stake: Configurable (default 1 STX)
  • Active market window
• Directions: "bull" (long) or "bear" (short)

clarinet console> (contract-call? .bitpredict take-position u0 "bull" u1000000)

3. Market Resolution (settle-market)

• Oracle Requirements:
  • Called by authorized oracle address
  • After expiration block
• Sets: Final closing price and resolution status

clarinet console> (contract-call? .bitpredict settle-market u0 u68000)

4. Reward Claiming (claim-rewards)

• Calculation:

  gross_reward = (position_amount / winning_pool) * total_commitment
  protocol_fee = gross_reward * 2%
  net_payout = gross_reward - protocol_fee
  

clarinet console> (contract-call? .bitpredict claim-rewards u0)

Administrative Functions

1. Oracle Management (update-oracle)

clarinet console> (contract-call? .bitpredict update-oracle 'STNEWORACLE)

2. Stake Configuration (adjust-stake)

clarinet console> (contract-call? .bitpredict adjust-stake u500000)

Query Interface

1. Market Data Retrieval

clarinet console> (contract-call? .bitpredict get-market-data u0)

2. Position Status Check

clarinet console> (contract-call? .bitpredict get-user-position u0 'STUSER)

Error Codes

Code	Description
100	Owner-only function
101	Invalid parameter
102	Resource not found
103	Market inactive/closed
104	Invalid prediction direction
105	Insufficient balance
106	Rewards already claimed

Security Model

1. Oracle Protection

   • Market resolution restricted to pre-authorized oracle
   • Final settlement price immutable once set

2. Capital Safeguards

   • Funds held in contract escrow until resolution
   • STX transfers via Clarity's built-in security

3. Temporal Controls

   • Block-height based market windows
   • No late positions accepted